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The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies

Abstract: We employ a single-country dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to make health-focussed macroeconomic assessments of three contingent UK Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation strategies, designed to achieve 2030 emission targets as suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. In contrast to previous assessment studies, our main focus is on health co-benefits additional to those from reduced local air pollution.We conclude that UK policy makers will, most likely, have to adopt elements which involve initial net societal costs in order to achieve future emission targets and longer-term benefits from GHG reduction. Cost-effectiveness of GHG strategies is likely to require technological mitigation inter ventions and/or demand constraining interventions with important health co-benefits and other efficiency-enhancing policies that promote internalization of externalities. Health co-benefits can play a crucial role in bringing down net costs, but our results also suggest the need for adopting holistic assessment methodologies which give proper consideration to welfare-improving health co-benefits with potentially negative economic repercussions (such as increased longevity).

Authors: Henning Tarp Jensen Marcus R. Keogh-Brown Richard D. Smith Zaid Chalabi Alan D. Dangour Mike Davies Phil Edwards Tara Garnett Moshe Givoni Ulla Griffiths Ian Hamilton James Jarrett Ian Roberts Paul Wilkinson James Woodcock Andy Haines