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Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States

Abstract: Episodes of severe weather in the United States, such as the present abundance of rainfall in California, are brandished as tangible evidence of the future costs of current climate trends. Hsiang et al. collected national data documenting the responses in six economic sectors to short-term weather fluctuations. These data were integrated with probabilistic distributions from a set of global climate models and used to estimate future costs during the remainder of this century across a range of scenarios (see the Perspective by Pizer). In terms of overall effects on gross domestic product, the authors predict negative impacts in the southern United States and positive impacts in some parts of the Pacific Northwest and New England.

Authors: Solomon Hsiang Robert Kopp Amir Jina James Rising Michael Delgado Shashank Mohan D. J. Rasmussen Robert Muir-Wood Paul Wilson Michael Oppenheimer Kate Larsen Trevor Houser