US Climate and Health Alliance

Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate

Abstract

It has been proposed that changes in global climate have been responsible for episodes of widespread violence and even the collapse of civilizations. Yet previous studies have not shown that violence can be attributed to the global climate, only that random weather events might be correlated with conflict in some cases. Here we directly associate planetary-scale climate changes with global patterns of civil conflict by examining the dominant interannual mode of the modern climate, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Historians have argued that ENSO may have driven global patterns of civil conflict in the distant past, a hypothesis that we extend to the modern era and test quantitatively. Using data from 1950 to 2004, we show that the probability of new civil conflicts arising throughout the tropics doubles during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. This result, which indicates that ENSO may have had a role in 21% of all civil conflicts since 1950, is the first demonstration that the stability of modern societies relates strongly to the global climate.

Resource Type
Peer-reviewed article
Authors
Solomon M. Hsiang Kyle C. Meng Mark A. Cane
Resource URL
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v476/n7361/full/nature10311.html
Publication
Nature
Journal Abbr.
Nature
Volume
476
Issue
7361
Pages
438-441
Date
Aug 25, 2011
DOI
10.1038/nature10311
ISSN
1476-4687
Health and Human Impact
Conflict

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